Extended estimation method for lateral flight technical error of perturbed system in performance based navigation

With the development of new generation air traffic systems, Performance Based Navigation (PBN), as a part of the new generation air traffic systems, is required by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to implement before 2025. In PBN, lateral Flight Technical Error (FTE) estimation is to be done first for the determination of the executable navigation specification among various PBN specifications. However, the estimation of lateral FTE is challenging, as some of the factors of FTE are difficult for quantification, especially for the turbulence disturbance and perturbation. In this paper, based on our previous works on the lateral FTE estimation with turbulence disturbance, we present an extended estimation method that jointly considers the system perturbation. This proposed estimation method can estimate the lateral FTE with both the turbulence disturbance and perturbation through the determination of the maximum perturbation size. To validate the proposed method, numerical simulation is performed for a final approach scenario including turbulence disturbance and system perturbation. Based on the simulation results and the comparison with the statistical data of measured lateral FTE, we can show that the proposed method can effectively estimate the lateral FTE of the perturbed system due to the turbulence disturbance.