Examine the Convergence in per Capita Energy Consumption in China with Breakpoints

Convergence reflects the important economic principles of energy consumption and therefore has important theoretical and practical meanings. Considering the fact that the structure and development styles of China's economy have changed significantly since 1980s, the characteristics of energy consumption may also change. Using the panel data of 29 provinces in China over the period of 1985-2012, static and dynamic regression methods are utilized to analyze the convergence in per capita energy consumption across Chinese provinces. In order to search for possible breakpoints, the Chow tests are conducted for each year's regression results. The estimation results verify the existence of convergence, and there is also a breakpoint at 1996. After 1996, the growth rate of per capita energy consumption is higher than the pre-1996 period, but the speed of convergence rate is considerably lower. Per capita GDP, the proportion of secondary industry and population density all have significant influences on energy consumption and the convergence speed at both stages.