EV-driven decarbonization of China's road transport: Linking historical drivers and future trends

The road transport sector, due to its heavy reliance on oil, remains one of the most challenging to decarbonize. Existing studies have typically focused on historical drivers or future scenarios, without explicitly linking past dynamics to future transition pathways. To address this gap, this study develops a “history–future” framework integrating LMDI decomposition with the LEAP model to assess China's road transport decarbonization. Results show that China's road transport CO₂ emissions increased by 168 Mt (6.5%) during 2015–2019, mainly driven by socio-economic growth, while improvements in energy intensity offset about 45% of emissions. Early electrification of urban buses significantly reduced carbon intensity, highlighting the growing mitigation role of electric vehicles (EVs). Scenario analysis shows that large-scale EV diffusion fundamentally reshapes future pathways. China's total vehicle stock is projected to peak at 497 million in 2042, while fuel-based energy consumption and CO₂ emissions peak earlier, around 2025, under the 'deep decarbonization' scenario (DDS) and 'near-zero-emissions' scenario (NZS). By 2060, road transport CO₂ emissions decline to 137 Mt under the DDS and to 2 Mt under the NZS, with EVs dominating vehicle stocks. Future LMDI decomposition reveals a shift in mitigation drivers. During the peaking phase, energy intensity and vehicle structure dominate, contributing −77 Mt and −72 Mt, respectively, while carbon intensity becomes the main driver in the carbon neutrality phase, contributing −470 Mt. These results support a phased strategy emphasizing near-term efficiency improvements and long-term vehicle electrification with clean energy supply.