Economic rhythms and green tides: Charting China's dual dividends through synergistic policies

As China pursues carbon neutrality by 2060, reconciling economic development with stringent climate goals has emerged as a central policy challenge. This study examines how economic growth can be aligned with ambitious decarbonization targets by evaluating the joint effects of emissions trading, coal consumption controls, and green investment incentives. Moving beyond analyses that consider these instruments in isolation, we employ a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to assess their policy synergies. Long-term outcomes from 2020 to 2060 are projected using a hybrid ARIMA–LSTM framework. The results indicate that emissions trading policies exert a significant negative impact on economic output, while appropriate coordination with green finance policies can partially offset these effects. Policy implementation struggles to simultaneously achieve both economic growth and carbon reduction targets. However, it generally accelerates the timeline for phasing out coal. Moreover, controlling coal consumption is essential for achieving carbon neutrality. Policies featuring a lower proportion of auctioned allowances and stringent coal control measures effectively balance economic and environmental benefits.