DSGE Model of the Russian Economy: Economic Impact of Oil Price

In the paper the DSGE model proposed on the base of the theory of adaptive expectations. The aim of this work is to describe the possibility of using DSGE models for forecasting the Russian economy. This paper examines how the methodology of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models can be applied to predict the yields of government bonds in 2018-2020, the proposed modification of the Taylor rule and the components of the prediction rate of the Russian ruble, characteristic of resource economies, where there is a close relationship between the exchange rate and oil price. It proposed the forecast of main macroeconomic indicators in the period 2017-2020 years (economic growth, inflation, oil price, exchange rate, Bank of Russia key rate and effective yields of government bonds). The practical significance of this work lies in the structuring of existing knowledge on the applicability of DSGE models of the Russian economy. The article also outlines the macroeconomic trends and modeling the conditions of an unstable economic situation in Russia. The parameters of monetary policy are also significant for determining the government bond yields. In addition, this article sheds light on forecasting the term structure of interest rates based on macroeconomic indicators.