Deep-Learning-Based Flying Animals Migration Prediction With Weather Radar Network

Monitoring and forecasting aerial animal migration benefit biological conservation, aviation safety, and agricultural production. Due to the lack of large-scale observation data and quantitative knowledge of aerial animal migration mechanisms, it is difficult to build a numerical simulation system for migration prediction. However, the extensive deployment of weather radars makes it possible to obtain large-scale aerial migration information. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence technologies provide new insights into the modeling of complex system. In this article, we develop a deep-learning model to predict aerial migration from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution. Specifically, an undirected graph is applied to describe the geographic structure of the weather radar network, and then graph convolution and gated recurrent unit (GRU) are combined to extract spatio-temporal features of migration information. In addition, a multi-head self-attention mechanism is applied to enhance long-term dependence. Experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed model on the data from the Chinese weather radar network. The results show that our model can achieve state-of-the-art performance among the competing methods. Moreover, improvements from graph convolution and multi-head self-attention are also analyzed. In future applications, more weather radar data will be collected to enrich the dataset and build an aerial migration monitoring and prediction system.