Coordinating food security and environmental performance in Belt and Road agri-food systems

Agricultural and food security cooperation has emerged as a cornerstone of the current Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, most BRI countries are facing the twin challenges of ecological degradation and food insecurity. Here, we developed a Boundary–Impact–Coupling framework by integrating Doughnut Economics, Multi-regional Input–Output Models, and the Coupling Coordination Degree Model. Within this framework, we delineated the dual boundaries of agri-food systems, namely the ecological ceilings and food security thresholds, and identified the food security and environmental performance of BRI countries in 2020, along with their interactions. Results indicate that most BRI countries face dual crises of environmental boundaries transgressions and food insecurity. Trade-offs between food security and environmental performance are widespread, underscoring the necessity for sustainable agricultural transitions. These findings offer valuable insights to support policies that balance food security and environmental sustainability, thereby promoting a green transformation in agriculture within the BRI.