Carbon capture and storage in China's power sector: Optimal planning under the 2 °C constraint

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been widely recognized as a key technology to reduce CO₂ emissions in the power sector. China's power sector needs to achieve large-scale emission reductions through CCS technologies to contribute to limiting the global temperature rise to less than 2℃. The best source–sink matching directly affects total mitigation costs for the power sector. However, China has not yet established an optimal CCS plan. This study evaluates the least-cost source–sink relationship and cluster development opportunities for CCS in China under the 2 °C constraint. The results show that 165 existing coal-fired power plants, which have an installed capacity of approximately 175 GW, need CCS retrofitting and can find a suitable CO₂ storage site within an average radius of 115 km. The total captured CO₂ is 17.42 billion tons in Northeast, North, East, Northwest, and South regions with the share of 10.79% (1.88 GtCO₂), 31.29% (5.45 GtCO₂), 35.25% (6.14GtCO₂), 22.39% (3.90GtCO₂), and 0.27% (47MtCO₂), respectively. Approximately 90% of captured CO₂ can be stored in the Songliao, Bohai Bay, and Subei basins. In addition, 23% of the emission reductions can be achieved through CO₂-enhanced oil recovery. The total mitigation cost is USD 1212 billion and the revenue generated from CO₂-enhanced oil recovery is USD 377 billion. Overall, it provides the least-cost source–sink layout and cluster development opportunities for CCS development under the 2 ℃ constraint, which can serve as a basis for large-scale CCS adoption in China.