Bridging the transition: Economic and environmental impact assessment of rural natural gas adoption in Beijing

Natural gas serves as a bridging fuel in the transition of rural energy systems from coal to renewable energy. However, the transition generates notable economic impacts and unequal welfare effects across income groups. This study develops a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with an extended income-expenditure module to evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of rural natural gas adoption in Beijing. The results show substantial reductions in pollutant emissions and improvements in energy efficiency, although the environmental benefits diminish over time. Household energy burdens increase unevenly across income groups, with middle- and higher-income households experiencing elevated burdens for 7–12 years, and low-income households facing more persistent pressures. GDP initially declines but gradually recovers as efficiency improvements emerge and industrial structures adjust. These findings highlight the importance of long-term targeted subsidies and complementary industrial policies in facilitating a sustainable energy transition.