Artificial intelligence policy and urban resilience: Evidence from a Quasi-natural experiment in China

The growing diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) has been increasingly viewed as a potential pathway for strengthening urban resilience (UR). Exploiting China's New-Generation AI Innovation and Development Pilot Zone policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study identifies the causal impact of AI on UR. Using a difference-in-differences (DID) model on a panel of 283 cities from 2010 to 2023, the analysis finds that the policy significantly enhances UR. Specifically, the policy increases the composite urban resilience index by 0.038. The positive effect is observed across all resilience sub-dimensions. The largest improvement occurs in infrastructure resilience, which increases by 0.048, followed by ecological resilience with an increase of 0.044, social resilience with an increase of 0.036, and economic resilience with an increase of 0.030. Mechanism analyses reveal that AI strengthens resilience through three channels: fostering technological innovation, stimulating entrepreneurial vitality, and facilitating industrial upgrading. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the effects are amplified in cities with established digital infrastructure. These findings suggest that AI is not only a driver of growth but also a viable solution for balancing development and stability amidst increasing external uncertainties.