Analyzing impact factors of CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model

Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzes the impact of population, affluence and technology on the total CO₂ emissions of countries at different income levels over the period 1975-2000. Our main results show at the global level that economic growth has the greatest impact on CO₂ emissions, and the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64 has the least impact. The proportion of the population between 15 and 64 has a negative impact on the total CO₂ emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels. This may illustrate the importance of the "B" in the "I = PABT"; that is to say that different behavior fashions can greatly influence environmental change. For low-income countries, the impact of GDP per capita on total CO₂ emissions is very great, and the impact of energy intensity in upper-middle income countries is very great. The impact of these factors on the total CO₂ emissions of countries at the high income level is relatively great. Therefore, these empirical results indicate that the impact of population, affluence and technology on CO₂ emissions varies at different levels of development. Thus, policy-makers should consider these matters fully when they construct their long-term strategies for CO₂ abatement.