Analysis of Deflection Effect of 2024 YR4 Asteroid Under the Velocity Increment Deviation of Kinetic Impact

Focusing on the defense against kinetic impact of the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4, the effect of orbital deflection under velocity increment deviation was investigated. Firstly, an orbital evolution model integrating planetary perturbations and impact errors was established. Secondly, the influence of velocity increment error on the orbital deflection effect of the asteroid was systematically analyzed by the semi-analytical method of State Transition Tensor (STT). Finally, the differences in the evolution of the major axis of the error ellipsoid after impact at different times were analyzed. The study found that the evolution of orbital uncertainty caused by initial velocity increment error was dominated by the orbital phase, and the magnitude of the velocity increment only affected the error amplitude rather than the propagation form. When impacts were implemented at different initial moments and evolved for the same duration, the difference in the size of the major axis of the error ellipsoid reached 3.7 times, indicating that the timing of the impact had a significant impact on the uncertainty of the orbital deflection effect. In addition, the analysis found that the Earth Star rendezvous event in 2028 will alter the expected deflection. This study provides reference for developing asteroid defense strategies that consider error propagation.