A panoramic analysis of electrolytic hydrogen production technology in China through a value chain approach

To prevent potential socio-economic and environmental risks brought by the large-scale development of hydrogen technology, it is essential to reveal the all-round impacts of the technology along the industry chain. Herein, a dynamic recursive input-output model is constructed to portray the upstream positive promotion effect and downstream negative substitution effect of the electrolytic hydrogen production technology on related industries in terms of economic output, employment, and air pollutant emissions. The results show that, the development of electrolytic hydrogen production is expected to increase 391 billion CNY economic output and 356 thousand jobs in the China economy from 2024 to 2030, together with emissions of 12 thousand tons of sulfur dioxide, 17 thousand tons of nitrogen oxides, and 13 thousand tons of particulate matter. Additionally, this technology development is expected to contribute 71 million tons of net CO₂ emission reduction from 2024 to 2030. Among all sectors, the Production and Distribution of Electric and Heat Power would experience the highest net increase in economic output while the Processing of Petroleum, Coking, and Nuclear Fuel would see the largest decline. Meanwhile, the Wholesale and Retail Trades is the most significantly affected sector in employment.