高速高机动目标轨迹预测技术发展现状与展望

The trajectory prediction of high-speed high-maneuvering targets not only supports continuous tracking and intelligence handover for detection systems，but also serves as a prerequisite and foundation for threat assessment and defensive interception. The whole-process trajectory of such targets is analyzed，where key characteristics of the ascending segment，middle segment and terminal guidance segment are extracted to provide theoretical foundations for trajectory prediction methods. Achievements in the trajectory prediction domain over recent years are categorized into four types：model-driven，data-driven，model-data hybrid and intention recognition approaches，with their respective characteristics and existing issues summarized. Based on existing research， future development focuses of trajectory prediction technology are prospected from three perspectives：reverse design of high-speed high-maneuvering target trajectory planning，generation of trajectory datasets and rapid convergence of prediction errors.