Weather, travel mode choice, and the effectiveness of driving restriction policies: A case of China

The effectiveness of driving restriction policies in reducing air pollution largely depends on their influence on residents’ travel mode choices, which, in turn, are shaped by weather conditions. To explore this relationship, this study employs city-daily data and a two-way fixed effects model to assess policy outcomes under varying meteorological conditions. The results demonstrate that driving restrictions markedly reduce air pollutants including PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and CO. Notably, tail-number license plate policies are more pronounced in summer and winter compared to spring and autumn. This seasonal variation might stem from the milder weather during spring and autumn, which residents like walking or biking rather than driving, especially in small build-up cities. Furthermore, the effect of driving restrictions is amplified during periods of heavy rainfall. Analysis based on the daily Human Comfort Index, which quantifies weather pleasantness, indicates that driving restrictions, particularly tail-number license plate policies, become more effective as weather comfort declines. In light of these findings, the study suggests refining restriction policies to account for seasonal variations in weather-related travel behavior.