Unveiling the complexities of economic, development and governance factors in belt and road countries: A leap forward towards environmental management

Ecological footprint (EF) is a useful tool for benchmarking environmental performance and monitoring progress toward a sustainable future. The influence of economic, developmental, and governance factors on EF poses a significant threat to ecological balance. However, existing studies have largely overlooked the interactive relationships among these factors and their impacts on the EF across different regions. The primary aim of this study is to analyze the impacts of tourism, trade, energy use, urbanization, administrative effectiveness, and regulatory quality on the EF in BRI countries. BRI has been recognized as a key initiative for the regional integration of countries. An ARDL model is applied to estimate both long-run and short-run cointegration, while the Toda-Yamamoto model ensures causality on the data source from different international organizations for 1996–2021, covering 69 countries. The empirical results confirmed long-term cointegration among the variables. There is a diverse relationship among the variables across different income groups. For example, tourism negatively impacts the EF in high-income countries, while it positively affects other income groups. Additionally, in the short run, the models demonstrate high efficiency in adjusting to equilibrium post-disturbance, with adjustment speeds ranging from 0.831% to 1.55% across the studied countries. The causality test confirmed the unidirectional and bidirectional link, and diagnostic tests confirm the model's robustness. These findings suggest that BRI policymakers should align economic, developmental, and governance activities with ecological considerations, a vital step toward achieving the SDGs.