The impact of China's green technology transfer on energy intensity in countries along the Belt and Road

To assess the influence of China's green technology transfer on the energy intensity of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) regions, we first constructed an index of green technology transfer using nearly 80,000 international green patent families from 2002 to 2020. This paper further quantified its association with the energy intensity of BRI regions and tested the possible energy rebound effect. The results revealed an increase in the number of green patent transfers from 2002 to 2015, followed by a decrease between 2016 and 2020, possibly due to increasing technological maturity. Among them, more than 50% of green technology patents were for alternative energy production, and 66% of green patents were transferred to developing countries. Moreover, green technology transfer and its subcategories can decrease the energy intensity of BRI countries, with the transfer of alternative energy production and waste management patents having the greatest effect. This inhibitory effect is more prominent in developing regions than in developed ones. Finally, we found that green technology transfer induced the energy rebound effect in the host country. Further analysis showed that green technology transfer can significantly inhibit energy consumption in developing regions by affecting the industrial structure and energy price. The conclusions drawn in this paper offer valuable insights for the promotion and implementation of green technology.