The evolution of renewable energy and its impact on carbon reduction in China

China is facing unprecedented pressure to control its carbon emissions as it is the biggest emitter across the world. The Chinese central government has shown its ambition to reduce carbon emissions by proposing to change the current energy structure by encouraging the use of renewable energy. To identify how this development can help China improve its emissions reductions, we measure the influence of renewable energy generation in China on its carbon emissions through a quantile regression model and path analysis of inter-provincial panel data from 2008 to 2017. The results indicate that, first, renewable energy development has an inhibitory influence on carbon emission intensity; for every 1% increase in renewable energy development, carbon emission intensity decreases in the range of 0.028%–0.043%. Second, based on the results of the quantile regression, the development of renewable energy at different levels has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. Third, the development of renewable energy has a less direct effect on carbon emissions, although its indirect effect is relatively large; specifically, two indicators, energy intensity and GDP per capita, have an inhibitory influence on carbon emissions.