Structural spillovers, seasonal heterogeneity and optimal air pollution mitigations: A dynamic game modelling in northern China

The concentration of air pollution is influenced by local emissions, seasonal meteorological conditions, geographical location, and cross-regional dynamic pollution transmission. Dynamically optimizing pollution control rates based on seasonal variations can enhance both emission reduction and economic growth. Conventional planning models often overlook the endogenous economy-environment linkages and the structural inter-dependencies among regions, leading to misaligned strategies dynamics. To address this, we develop the Regional Environment Economy Game (REEG) 2.0 model, an Integrated Assessment Model incorporating seasonal heterogeneity and dynamic structural spillovers of pollution. Through a benefit-cost analysis in northern China, this framework identifies optimal quarterly abatement rates, suggesting 0.7 %-1.2 %, with winter requiring increases of 1 %-2 % in Beijing and 0.4 %-0.6 % in neighboring provinces due to trans-boundary contributions. Stricter targets further necessitate enhanced dynamic regional cooperation. We conclude that realistic pollution control could account for regional structural spillovers and seasonal dynamics, offering a more realistic framework for policy design beyond conventional assumptions.