Reliability Analysis and Prediction of EMUs Based on Cumulative Failure Rate

Aiming at the practical problem that the failure rate data of EMUs in China is difficult to be deeply excavated and applied in reliability quantitative statistical analysis, according to reliability theory, the reliability distribution parameter estimation methods based on failure rate and cumulative failure rate are given respectively. By the comparison of the simulation calculation results using two methods, it is found that the estimated values of reliability distribution parameters based on cumulative failure rate are closer to the set values, with smaller error, higher correlation coefficient and more obvious method advantages. The method can better solve the inaccurate problem of reliability distribution parameters estimation and quantitative analysis of EMUs. Based on this method, the reliability distribution parameters of a certain type of EMU are estimated and the reliability of the whole vehicle is predicted. The results show that this method can be used to calculate the life cycle failure rate function of a certain type of EMU in sections. The function characterization and quantitative analysis of the variation law of failure rate in different sections before and after the first level III maintenance of the EMU prove that the failure rate is more stable after the first level III maintenance of the EMU. The prediction results of failure rate in different stages of EMU life cycle can better reflect the actual situation, further verify the accuracy and stability of this method, and provide technical support for the reform of EMU maintenance system.