Re-examining the realization of provincial carbon dioxide emission intensity reduction targets in China from a consumption-based accounting

China's administrative regions distribute their carbon dioxide emissions mitigation burdens differently. As a result of closer interregional economic connections, embodied carbon emissions are transferred among provinces via inter-provincial trade, resulting in carbon leakage. China usually adopts a production-based principle to evaluate the realization of carbon intensity reduction targets for disparate provinces. The carbon dioxide emission reduction targets from a consumption-based accounting were re-examined, and compared two methods that have been applied. From 2002 to 2007, the rankings of carbon dioxide emission intensity variation rates from production-based and consumption-based accounting resulted in different province rankings and, although the gaps in the rankings between both methods changed between 2007 and 2012, particularly in Guizhou and Yunnan. Because the production-based calculation ignores carbon leakage and is ineffective in accurately assessing reduction targets, these targets were re-examined from a consumption-based accounting. These findings are very significant for China's policies on carbon dioxide emissions reduction: the provinces’ targets on reducing carbon dioxide emissions may be evaluated rationally with regard to inter-provincial carbon leakage in China; kinds of support for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions can favor less developed regions; and encouraging economic mechanics for technological innovations assist in managing carbon dioxide emissions at the national scale.