Provincial heterogeneity effects of electrification on carbon dioxide emissions in China and the moderating effect of power supply mix

As a policy-supported modernization process, electrification can alleviate many environmental issues, but its effects on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions are much more complicated and controversial. This study establishes an explicit econometrical modeling framework involving both supply and demand sides of re-electrification. It estimates the provincial heterogeneity effects of electrification in China, and further explores how to neutralize the potential increased CO₂ emissions with power supply mix cleaning. The main findings include: (1) Electrification can increase or decrease emissions with different power supply mixes, indicating huge provincial heterogeneity. It must be coordinated with power supply mix cleaning to better promote CO₂ emissions reduction. (2) Electrification tends to reduce the emissions in 18 provinces, and could be further vigorously promoted. However, their power sources still need concerns, and power-importing provinces such as Beijing are obliged to import more renewable energy power. (3) Emissions of 12 provinces are raised by electrification, three of which have great opportunity to neutralize the increased CO₂ emissions through fine-tuning the power supply mix, including Shandong, Tianjin, and Gansu. Other provinces are difficult to achieve this target in the short term, and should pay special attention to ensure the electrification is based on additional clean generation capacity.