Moderate climate targets promote more resilient Food-Water-Emission nexus

Achieving climate targets may reshape interactions within the Food–Water–Emission (FWE) nexus. However, it remains unclear how different climate mitigation pathways influence coordination and stability within the FWE nexus. To address this gap, this study develops a FWE nexus framework evaluating how mitigation policies reshape the FWE nexus from both synergistic interaction and structural resilience perspectives. Agricultural systems in 14 major food production regions are simulated under three climate mitigation scenarios by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Spearman correlation analysis quantifies synergies and trade-offs among key sub-indicators, while nexus resilience is assessed by examining the stability of these interactions under climate policy constraints. The results reveal that: 1) climate mitigation impacts are highly regional and uneven; 2) climate policies effectively alleviate water stress and foster synergies in FWE nexus, but non-CO₂ emissions continue to exhibit trade-offs with food and water systems, underscoring conflict between food production and climate mitigation; 3) nexus resilience shows strong regional divergence, with some regions maintaining more stable and synergistic coordination under stringent mitigation, while others exhibit declining resilience or deteriorating coordination; 4) moderate climate target like well-below 2°C, promotes more balanced improvements in nexus coordination while maintaining nexus resilience under climate change. Compared with previous studies, this study quantifies how climate mitigation reshapes FWE subsystem interactions and nexus resilience at the global scale, highlighting that moderate mitigation coupled with differentiated policy strategies is crucial for achieving sustainable global agriculture.