Low-carbon energy transition under temperature anomalies: evidence from Chinese cities

Climate-induced extreme weather events are increasing in both frequency and intensity globally, yet their impact on the energy transition remains underexplored. Using data from Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019, this study explores how temperature anomalies affect the urban energy transition. We find that temperature anomalies significantly inhibit urban low-carbon energy transitions. This inhibitory effect operates primarily through three channels: suppressing green technological innovation, impeding green finance development, and slowing industrial structures upgrading. Moreover, the adverse effects are stronger in high-tech, manufacturing, and firm-dense cities, but weaker in energy-based cities and those with greater government environmental concern. Finally, we find that short-term extreme temperature shocks also impede the energy transition. Meanwhile, investments in transregional energy infrastructure can effectively mitigate the negative impacts of temperature anomalies. These insights provide valuable guidance for regions aiming to promote sustainable energy transitions and develop effective climate adaptation strategies.