Lithium demand and mitigation pathways from China’s photovoltaic storage expansion under climate targets

As global climate targets intensify the transition to renewable energy, addressing the intermittency of photovoltaic (PV) power generation necessitates large-scale energy storage integration. This study evaluates how different energy storage technologies ratio for PV systems impacts lithium demand under 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate scenarios in China, while identifying critical risks at the nexus of resource security, environmental sustainability, and economic stability during industrial decarbonization. Using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), we forecast PV capacity growth and optimize energy storage technology deployment—including lithium-ion batteries, sodium-ion, vanadium flow, and sodium-sulfur batteries—under four policy-driven scenarios. Results indicate that stricter climate targets could drive lithium demand for PV storage alone to up to 580,000 tonnes annually by 2050—24 times China’s total storage sector consumption in 2023. However, strategic adoption of alternative technologies can dramatically alter this trajectory: under cost-minimization and environmental-impact-minimization scenarios, lithium demand is reduced by 70–85% compared to a performance-optimized baseline, primarily through large-scale deployment of alternative technologies. The findings highlight a critical trade-off between technological performance and resource security. We conclude that diversifying storage technologies and accelerating the development of alternative electrochemical energy storage represent essential strategies to align climate goals with resource efficiency and industrial resilience.