Linkage analysis of sectoral CO₂ emissions based on the hypothetical extraction method in South Africa

As one of the top carbon emitters in Africa, South Africa has received tremendous pressure to reduce carbon emissions. Issues related to energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa have thus far been widely studied. However, the carbon linkage caused by the intermediate trade among industrial sectors has typically been ignored. This study integrates the environmental input-output model with modified hypothetical extraction method to investigate the carbon linkage among sectors. Based on the data of South Africa in 2005, this study empirically estimates the linkages of CO₂ emissions involved in the industrial sectors and the carbon effects of inter-sector linkages. Results show that the total carbon linkage of industrial systems in South Africa in 2005 is 171.32 million tons (Mt), which accounts for 81.58 Mt total backward carbon linkage and 89.71 Mt total forward carbon linkage. The industrial block of electricity, gas, and water has the largest total carbon linkage and internal and net forward effect, and the block of basic metal, coke, and refined petroleum products has the largest net backward effect. The potential policy implications on energy consumption and reduction of CO₂ emissions deduced from this numerical study are also discussed.