Job losses or gains? The impact of supply-side energy transition on employment in China

The supply-side energy transition has created numerous jobs in the renewable energy industry while also destroying jobs in the traditional industry. This study examines the relationship between the supply-side energy transition and employment using panel data from China covering 2008 to 2022. It includes a heterogeneity analysis based on geographical location, economic development, and resource endowments, and estimates net employment based on clean energy production projections. Results show that a 1 % growth in clean energy production led to an approximately 0.013 % increase in total employment. However, that effect was heterogeneous. Employment in the primary industry decreased while the tertiary industry saw an increase. Geographically, employment rose in East and South China but fell in Middle China. Economically, lower-income areas benefited more, which could help reduce talent inequality. Regarding resource endowments, job losses were notable in coal-rich areas and indicated the need for fair transition. Conversely, wind and solar-rich regions experienced higher employment growth, showing a scale effect of clean energy development. By 2060, net employment is projected to increase by 5.89–9.96 million. Policies should be tailored to specific local circumstances in order to also promote a fair, equitable energy transition.