Industrial chain risk assessment for the promotion of electrochemical energy storage technology

A low-carbon power system is essential for mitigating climate change, necessitating large-scale energy storage deployment. Electrochemical energy storage (EES) has distinct advantages and is advancing rapidly. However, the extensive industrial chain of EES raises concerns about the potential socio-economic and environmental risks. Its promotion could face obstacles if key inputs are not available, potentially slowing down the energy transition. Thus, combining the techno-economic characteristics of EES and the macroeconomic input-output (IO) table, a dynamic extended IO-based tiered hybrid model was developed. It was used to assess the direct and indirect industrial chain impacts including capital demand, labor demand and emissions for developing EES under the 2 °C and 1.5 °C climate targets. Lithium-ion battery, lead-carbon battery and flow battery were investigated. The findings indicate that to achieve the targets, the cumulative EES demand in China from 2025 to 2030 will be 61 to 164 times that of the installed capacity in 2020. The cumulative increase in capital demand accounts for 0.5 % ∼ 1.1 % of China's total output in 2020, and the cumulative increase in labor demand accounts for 0.2 % ∼ 0.5 % of China's employed persons. Additionally, the cumulative increase in carbon emissions accounts for 0.4 % ∼ 1 % of that in 2020, and the cumulative increase in industrial waste gas emissions accounts for 0.2 % ∼ 0.5 %. The manufacture of electrical machinery and equipment sector is likely to experience the greatest capital and labor shortages, alongside a significant rise in emissions from the smelting and processing of metals sector. Policies that can mitigate industrial chain risks are further proposed.