Impact of climate variability on Myanmar’s agricultural, total exports, and textile industry: Asymmetric and dynamic multipliers

Climate change brings uncertainty and instability to ecosystems, economies, and global supply chains. It also significantly influences the total export value of countries that heavily rely on agriculture for economic growth. This study investigates the effects of climate variability on Myanmar’s agricultural and total exports. This study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach for the annual data from 1990 to 2021. This study finds that rainfall negatively affects agricultural and total exports. Increasing rainfall leads to declining agricultural exports, whereas decreasing rainfall enhances total exports in the long run. Decreasing rainfall declines agricultural exports, while increasing rainfall diminishes total exports in the short run. Carbon emissions (CO₂) adversely affect agricultural and total exports in both runs. However, temperatures positively impact agricultural and total exports in both runs. In controlled variables, increased GDP has a positive impact on both agricultural and total exports. The textile and garment industry in Myanmar is perceived as an economic sector that is mainly export-oriented. Agricultural production contributes significantly to agricultural exports, which enhances total exports. This study offers new policy insights to adapt and mitigate climate change’s influence on Myanmar’s export sectors.