How low-carbon power policies affect the green hydrogen industry? A case of China

Green hydrogen (GH) is crucial for global energy transition, but China's hydrogen supply remains highly carbon-intensive, making it urgent to explore the impact of power sector low-carbon policies on GH industry development. This study constructed a system dynamics (SD) model integrating Carbon Emission Trading (CET), Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) and GH industry modules, simulated policy effects under different scenarios, and conducted sensitivity analysis on key parameters. Results show that: 1) RPS has a stronger promotional effect on GH industry than CET, with cumulative installed capacity and output in the single RPS scenario significantly higher than other scenarios, driven by stable green electricity supply and cost reduction; 2) Synergistic implementation of RPS and CET shows limited complementary effects due to partial offsetting impacts on electricity market; 3) Sensitivity analysis indicates electrolysis efficiency improvement has the most significant impact on GH development, followed by the hydrogen production technology learning rate and RPS quota adjustment, while carbon intensity has weaker influence. Finally, some policy recommendations are put forward to promote the GH industry development.