How does urban-rural integration synergize food security and agricultural carbon efficiency? The moderating role of artificial intelligence and heterogeneous pathways

The coordinated development of food security and agricultural carbon emission efficiency is a key sustainable agriculture goal. However, the mechanisms remain unclear amid large-scale urban-rural integration, especially with rapid artificial intelligence (AI) advancement. Leveraging panel data from China spanning 2010-2023, a coupled coordination model is employed to evaluate regional coupled coordination development (CCD) between food security index (FSI) and agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE). The relationship between urban-rural integration (URI) and CCD, along with AI's moderating effect, is analyzed using two-way fixed effect, moderated effect, difference grouping, and threshold regression models, thereby establishing an "AI-URI-FSI-ACEE" analytical framework. Coordinated development paths are identified via dynamic qualitative comparative analysis, examining technology, agricultural conditions, social environment, and policies. Research findings: URI significantly promotes CCD with long-term effects. further amplifies this effect, particularly in regions characterized by major production areas, low economic development levels, and robust policy support. As AI progresses, urban-rural spatial, economic, and social integration further enhances CCD, while ecological integration exhibits a transition from hindering to facilitating CCD. Under scenarios prioritizing FSI, the promotional effect of URI significantly intensifies, with greater priority yielding stronger promotion effects, while AI exerts a pronounced positive moderating influence. Under scenarios prioritizing ACEE, the promotional effect exhibits a diminishing trend until it becomes insignificant. Although AI shows no significant main effect, it continues to play a crucial moderating role by empowering the URI process. Four typical paths emerged: market-driven AI efficiency enhancement pathways, insurance-backed stable production and efficiency improvement pathways, domestic circulation-oriented ecological intensification pathways, and policy-coordinated comprehensive safeguarding pathways. Differences exist among these policy priority pathways. This research provides policymakers with references for adopting tailored strategies to achieve a win-win outcome of food security and low-carbon development.