How does the new-type urbanisation affect CO ₂ emissions in China? An empirical analysis from the perspective of technological progress

The development of traditional urbanisation has generated environmental problems, so the Chinese Government has proposed a new-type of urbanisation path with uniquely Chinese characteristics. How does this new-type of urbanisation affect CO ₂ emissions? Based on panel data from 29 provinces in China (2005 to 2016), we apply an exploratory spatial data analysis model, a spatial econometric model, and a threshold model to analyse the spatial autocorrelation of CO ₂ emissions, the direct and indirect effects of new-type urbanisation on CO ₂ emissions, and the threshold characteristics produced by technological progress, respectively. The key results are: (1) CO ₂ emissions show significant positive autocorrelation in China, and the spatial distribution of CO ₂ emissions is HH (High-High) or LL (Low-Low) clustered in most provinces; (2) new-type urbanisation has a paradoxical effect on CO ₂ emissions. Energy-saving technology has a rebound effect on CO ₂ emissions, but environmental technology inhibits CO ₂ emissions; (3) by eliminating the rebound effect of energy-saving technology on CO ₂ emissions and promoting environmental technology, new-type urbanisation indirectly inhibits CO ₂ emissions; (4) new-type urbanisation exhibits a threshold effect on CO ₂ emissions due to the different levels of energy-saving technology and environmental technology. Finally, policy recommendations for CO ₂ emissions reduction are proposed from the perspective of new-type urbanisation, energy-saving technology, and environmental technology.