Goal setting for low-carbon development in regional China: role of achievement in the last term

Low-carbon goals significantly vary in regions and periods. This study analyzes the goal setting at prefecture level in China. It shows that the low-carbon achievement in the last term significantly affects the setting of subsequent goal. Specifically, 1% increase in the achievement of low-carbon goals in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) decreased the goals in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) by 0.35–1.09%. In addition, the goals in low-carbon pilot cities are less ambitious than those in non-pilot ones. It is suggested to weigh more on low-carbon development when evaluating the performance of local authorities.