Geopolitical risk exposure and resilience of energy support-chain trade: A multilayer network diagnosis

In a fragmenting international order, geopolitical risks increasingly affect the trade relationships that supply equipment, materials and functional inputs for energy transitions, raising concerns about the stability, substitutability and recoverability of upstream support-chain access. This study examines the energy support chain, comprising processing and synthesis equipment, mining, power generation and transmission equipment, and other energy sources and additives, whose trade relationships may themselves become structurally vulnerable under geopolitical-risk exposure. To diagnose how risk exposure is associated with instability and vulnerability in this chain, we extend the Trade–Resilience–Energy–Network Diagnosis for Supply framework by integrating a multilayer trade network with a country-year Energy-related Geopolitical Risk Exposure index, trade-relationship volatility, Support-chain Trade Accessibility Vulnerability and multi-node deletion and recovery stress tests. Using 2008–2023 bilateral trade data for 166 economies, we build a multilayer support-chain trade network, track sub-industry evolution and identify cross-layer hubs via node-deletion sensitivity. The results provide network-diagnostic evidence for identifying vulnerable trade relationships, critical hubs and recovery priorities under geopolitical uncertainty.