Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Cai Hua Xu; Ji Ping Hu; Ying Fan; Yi Ming Wei

doi:10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Cai Hua Xu
, Ji Ping Hu
, Ying Fan
, Yi Ming Wei^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

CAS - Institutes of Science and Development
Beijing Jiaotong University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	348-358
Number of pages	11
Journal	International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy
Volume	4
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584
Publication status	Published - Mar 2008
Externally published	Yes

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 8 Decent Work and Economic Growth

Keywords

Gini factor
Modified Gompertz model
Ownership ratio forecast
Passenger vehicle

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10.1504/IJFIP.2008.017584

Cite this

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title = "Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership",

abstract = "This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.",

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author = "Xu, \{Cai Hua\} and Hu, \{Ji Ping\} and Ying Fan and Wei, \{Yi Ming\}",

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AU - Hu, Ji Ping

AU - Fan, Ying

AU - Wei, Yi Ming

PY - 2008/3

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N2 - This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

AB - This paper forecasts trends of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio of China and the corresponding GDP per capita using a modified Gompertz model. It also calculates the total stock of passenger vehicles according to varying economic growth conditions for China over the period 2005 2020. The Gini factor is applied in the model as an index of the passenger vehicle ownership ratio. The results identify the per capita GDP threshold at which China can enter the 'automobile age'.

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KW - Modified Gompertz model

KW - Ownership ratio forecast

KW - Passenger vehicle

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ER -

Forecast on the growth climate of China's passenger vehicle ownership

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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