Effects of government subsidies on heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck penetration: A scenario-based system dynamics model

Enhancing energy security and cutting carbon emissions have rapidly boosted heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck (HFCT) industry. Heavy-duty HFCT penetration involves four key players: consumers, refueling station operators, heavy-duty HFCT manufacturers, and hydrogen suppliers. Clear comprehension of government subsidy impacts on these agents can boost penetration. We used a system dynamics (SD) model to analyze single-stage and two-stage subsidy policies' impact on four agents, employing Shanghai, China as a case study. Results indicate that (1) Acquisition subsidies are most impactful, followed by refueling station construction subsidies, and R&D subsidies are least efficient, whether two-stage or single-stage. (2) For two-stage subsidies, higher and longer acquisition subsidies in the later stage are preferable, early stage benefits from higher, extended refueling station construction subsidies., the effect of the two-stage subsidy policy for heavy-duty HFCT R&D subsidies is not much different, and the hydrogen R&D subsidy should be lower and longer in the early stage. (3) Lower and longer subsidies for hydrogen R&D in the early stage will have the best subsidy effect. (4) The penetration reacts more to oil price shifts than operational cost changes. Finally, specific policy implications are offered to enhance heavy-duty HFCT adoption.