Effectiveness Evaluation Approach of Joint Air Defense Operational Schemes Based on Three-way Decision

As a critical component of modern warfare system, the joint air defense operations face the dual challenges of multi-dimensional information integration and scientific decision-making under high-intensity conditions. To meet the requirements for evaluating the joint air defense operation scheme, a comprehensive evaluation index system, which covers five primary dimensions of strike effectiveness, equipment support effectiveness, information support effectiveness, early warning capability and command effectiveness, is constructed. It comprises five first-level indicators and seventeen quantifiable second-level indicators. The integrated weights of these indicators are determined using an improved criteria importance through intercriteria correlation and analytic network process methods. Based on the relative loss functions and conditional probabilities derived from indicators and operational schemes, a classification and ranking model for operational scheme effectiveness is developed under a three-action strategy framework. The proposed model effectively addresses the uncertainty and fuzziness in the evaluation process, enhancing the decision-making discriminative power and the rationality of scheme optimization. The case verification shows the proposed method has strong applicability and potential for broader implementation.