TY - JOUR
T1 - Direct and spillover effects of the China's belt and road initiative on total factor energy efficiency
T2 - Unpacking drivers and regional disparities
AU - Durrani, Shahzad Khan
AU - Zhu, Yulin
AU - Liu, Wenling
AU - Yue, Xianghua
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2025/11/20
Y1 - 2025/11/20
N2 - Energy efficiency is vital for global sustainability, addressing climate change and growing energy demand. However, the traditional high-resource, high-emission growth model challenges energy efficiency improvements. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a significant driver in global energy cooperation, may influence energy efficiency, yet its impacts are underexplored. Using panel data from 101 BRI-participating and non-participating countries (2004–2021), we assessed total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) with Epsilon-Based Measurement (EBM) and applied a Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) approach based on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to evaluate BRI participation effects. Spatial analysis shows that a 1 % increase in BRI participation leads to a 0.0471-unit improvement in energy efficiency within participating countries, with spillover effects of 0.0444 units on neighboring countries. Spatial mediation results indicate that technology innovation and industrial transformation partially mediate the impact of BRI on energy efficiency, with stronger spillover effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals regional variations, with no spatial dependencies observed in high-income regions. The upper-middle-income group experiences more significant direct improvements (0.0624 units), while low-middle-income countries show stronger spillovers (0.0357 units). Given these spatial dependencies, coordinated regional efforts are essential to improve energy-efficient technologies and sustainable infrastructure within the BRI framework. Differential policies are necessary, especially for middle- and upper-middle-income regions, to upgrade outdated infrastructure and prioritize retrofitting existing systems. BRI-driven technology innovation and industrial upgrades can strengthen the BRI-energy efficiency relationship, particularly within regional partnerships and adaptive national energy policies.
AB - Energy efficiency is vital for global sustainability, addressing climate change and growing energy demand. However, the traditional high-resource, high-emission growth model challenges energy efficiency improvements. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a significant driver in global energy cooperation, may influence energy efficiency, yet its impacts are underexplored. Using panel data from 101 BRI-participating and non-participating countries (2004–2021), we assessed total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) with Epsilon-Based Measurement (EBM) and applied a Spatial Difference-in-Differences (SDID) approach based on the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to evaluate BRI participation effects. Spatial analysis shows that a 1 % increase in BRI participation leads to a 0.0471-unit improvement in energy efficiency within participating countries, with spillover effects of 0.0444 units on neighboring countries. Spatial mediation results indicate that technology innovation and industrial transformation partially mediate the impact of BRI on energy efficiency, with stronger spillover effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals regional variations, with no spatial dependencies observed in high-income regions. The upper-middle-income group experiences more significant direct improvements (0.0624 units), while low-middle-income countries show stronger spillovers (0.0357 units). Given these spatial dependencies, coordinated regional efforts are essential to improve energy-efficient technologies and sustainable infrastructure within the BRI framework. Differential policies are necessary, especially for middle- and upper-middle-income regions, to upgrade outdated infrastructure and prioritize retrofitting existing systems. BRI-driven technology innovation and industrial upgrades can strengthen the BRI-energy efficiency relationship, particularly within regional partnerships and adaptive national energy policies.
KW - Belt and road initiative (BRI)
KW - Direct effects
KW - Energy efficiency
KW - Spatial difference-in-differences (SDID)
KW - Spillover effects
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105021083078
U2 - 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147013
DO - 10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.147013
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105021083078
SN - 0959-6526
VL - 533
JO - Journal of Cleaner Production
JF - Journal of Cleaner Production
M1 - 147013
ER -