Digital economy-driven decarbonization pathways: An integrated input-output and scenario analysis for China's 3060 dual-carbon targets

Clear digital economy industry boundaries and industrial carbon emissions assessments are key prerequisites for addressing the decoupling of economic development and Carbon Emissions (CE) fueled by the Digital Economy (DE). Hence, this study proposes a framework for the Digital Economy Industry Chain (DEIC) and applies the dynamic input-output model and advanced Tapio Decoupling model to simulated five scenarios, including digital economic growth and computing power improvement, and produces the decoupling paths of economic growth and CE in 2020–2060 for China. The results show that: DE can help decouple economic growth from CE by accelerating the dual adjustment of industrial and economic structures, but cannot prevent overall emissions from rising. In 2060, when DEIC reaches 970.78 trillion yuan, China can achieve GDP growth of 18.50 trillion yuan while reducing 33.99 × 10⁸ t CO₂, but still needs to consume the rest 22.94 × 10⁸ t CO₂ before achieving carbon neutrality. Therefore, China must simultaneous certain measures, such as energy restructuring, clean technology innovation and substitution, to ensure achieving the dual-carbon targets on schedule. In conclusion, the study's dynamic analytical framework and scenario assumption provide a theoretical reference for measuring DE's contribution to economic growth and environmental governance, and specific pathways for achieving China's 3060 Carbon Target.