TY - JOUR
T1 - Costs and CO2 emissions of technological transformation in China's power industry
T2 - The impact of market regulation and assistive technologies
AU - Zhang, Yingnan
AU - Wu, Guanqi
AU - Zhang, Bin
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025
PY - 2025/6
Y1 - 2025/6
N2 - This study explores the transformation pathways of China's power industry from 2020 to 2060 using the "Dynamic System and Low Emissions Analysis Platform" (SD-LEAP) model. The analysis assumes market regulation mechanisms include the carbon emission trading (CET) and the tradable green certificate (TGC) market, while assistive technologies encompass Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and energy storage. The study evaluates costs and CO2 emissions under these influences. Our findings indicate higher CET prices reduce fossil and biomass energy capacity, while higher TGC prices boost clean energy capacity. CCUS implementation and increased CET prices lower fossil power generation costs. Conversely, higher TGC prices and advances in energy storage raise renewable energy capacity and costs by 2060. Combined market regulations and assistive technologies are projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 509.3 to 1466.3 million tons by 2060, with policy recommendations for supporting China's power system development.
AB - This study explores the transformation pathways of China's power industry from 2020 to 2060 using the "Dynamic System and Low Emissions Analysis Platform" (SD-LEAP) model. The analysis assumes market regulation mechanisms include the carbon emission trading (CET) and the tradable green certificate (TGC) market, while assistive technologies encompass Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and energy storage. The study evaluates costs and CO2 emissions under these influences. Our findings indicate higher CET prices reduce fossil and biomass energy capacity, while higher TGC prices boost clean energy capacity. CCUS implementation and increased CET prices lower fossil power generation costs. Conversely, higher TGC prices and advances in energy storage raise renewable energy capacity and costs by 2060. Combined market regulations and assistive technologies are projected to reduce CO2 emissions by 509.3 to 1466.3 million tons by 2060, with policy recommendations for supporting China's power system development.
KW - Assistive technologies
KW - CO emissions
KW - Cost of power generation technology
KW - Market mechanism
KW - SD-LEAP model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85214809156&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.001
DO - 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.01.001
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85214809156
SN - 0954-349X
VL - 73
SP - 211
EP - 222
JO - Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
JF - Structural Change and Economic Dynamics
ER -