Copper demand forecast for the transport sector under China's Carbon neutrality target

China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets will accelerate electrification of transport sector and the development of related infrastructures, resulting in a substantial increase in copper demand. However, China's scarce copper reserves pose potential supply risks for copper. Existing research predominantly addresses the copper demand for road transport vehicles, with less attention on other transport vehicles and transport infrastructures. Consequently, this study combines national energy technology and logistic model to forecast copper demand and recycling scale under China's carbon targets for the whole transport sector. Results show copper demand is projected to reach between 5.53 and 5.94 million tons by 2060 for the transport sector. The supply-demand gap for copper is expected to widen and reach between 92.6 and 102.4 million tons in 2060. The recycling of copper can effectively mitigate the supply-demand gap, which can meet 18.9 %-35.3 % of copper demand by 2030, and 38.8 %-74.2 % by 2060, respectively.