Can the Belt and Road Initiative reduce urban carbon emissions? Evidence from 283 cities in China

Against the backdrop of the ‘dual circulation’ strategy and the ‘dual carbon’ targets, existing studies have mainly analyzed the carbon emission effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from an international perspective, overlooking the intermediary role of domestic cities. This study focuses on Chinese BRI cities and quantifies the BRI’s net effect on local carbon emissions. Using data from 283 cities and a difference-in-differences model, we find that the BRI significantly reduces urban carbon emissions. These effects vary across regions, with cities featuring stronger environmental regulations, higher economic development, coastal locations, and greater marketization experiencing more notable reductions. The BRI’s influence on low-carbon urban transformation is mainly mediated through regional innovation, foreign direct investment, and energy efficiency improvements. These findings provide valuable insights into the domestic environmental impacts of the BRI and offer guidance for designing policies that promote green development in alignment with China’s broader national strategies.