Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition

Baojun Tang; Wanhua Qiu; Xing Sun

doi:10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition

Baojun Tang^*
, Wanhua Qiu
, Xing Sun

^*Corresponding author for this work

Beihang University
CCID

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although some of these methods lead to models with a satisfactory ability to discriminate between healthy and bankrupt firms, they suffer from some limitations, often due to only give an alarm, but cannot forecast .This is why we have undertaken a research aiming at weakening these limitations, we propose an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting and Pattern Recognition ( ESFPR ) approach and illustrate how ESFPR can be applied to business failure prediction modeling. The results are very encouraging, and prove the usefulness of the proposed method for bankruptcy prediction.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008
Pages	576-581
Number of pages	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7
Publication status	Published - 2008
Externally published	Yes
Event	2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008 - Beijing, China Duration: 4 Nov 2008 → 6 Nov 2008

Publication series

Name	Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management

Conference

Conference	2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008
Country/Territory	China
City	Beijing
Period	4/11/08 → 6/11/08

Keywords

Early-warning
Enterprise crisis
Exponential smoothing method forecasting

Access to Document

10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

Cite this

Tang, B., Qiu, W., & Sun, X. (2008). Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition. In Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008 (pp. 576-581). Article 4673294 (Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

@inproceedings{6a20c10cf3ff40b7bdb1041c6e168696,

title = "Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition",

abstract = "Although some of these methods lead to models with a satisfactory ability to discriminate between healthy and bankrupt firms, they suffer from some limitations, often due to only give an alarm, but cannot forecast .This is why we have undertaken a research aiming at weakening these limitations, we propose an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting and Pattern Recognition ( ESFPR ) approach and illustrate how ESFPR can be applied to business failure prediction modeling. The results are very encouraging, and prove the usefulness of the proposed method for bankruptcy prediction.",

keywords = "Early-warning, Enterprise crisis, Exponential smoothing method forecasting",

author = "Baojun Tang and Wanhua Qiu and Xing Sun",

year = "2008",

doi = "10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7",

language = "English",

isbn = "9780769534022",

series = "Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management",

pages = "576--581",

booktitle = "Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008",

note = "2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008 ; Conference date: 04-11-2008 Through 06-11-2008",

}

Tang, B, Qiu, W & Sun, X 2008, Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition. in Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008., 4673294, Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, pp. 576-581, 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008, Beijing, China, 4/11/08. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition. / Tang, Baojun; Qiu, Wanhua; Sun, Xing.
Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008. 2008. p. 576-581 4673294 (Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

TY - GEN

T1 - Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition

AU - Tang, Baojun

AU - Qiu, Wanhua

AU - Sun, Xing

PY - 2008

Y1 - 2008

N2 - Although some of these methods lead to models with a satisfactory ability to discriminate between healthy and bankrupt firms, they suffer from some limitations, often due to only give an alarm, but cannot forecast .This is why we have undertaken a research aiming at weakening these limitations, we propose an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting and Pattern Recognition ( ESFPR ) approach and illustrate how ESFPR can be applied to business failure prediction modeling. The results are very encouraging, and prove the usefulness of the proposed method for bankruptcy prediction.

AB - Although some of these methods lead to models with a satisfactory ability to discriminate between healthy and bankrupt firms, they suffer from some limitations, often due to only give an alarm, but cannot forecast .This is why we have undertaken a research aiming at weakening these limitations, we propose an Exponential Smoothing Forecasting and Pattern Recognition ( ESFPR ) approach and illustrate how ESFPR can be applied to business failure prediction modeling. The results are very encouraging, and prove the usefulness of the proposed method for bankruptcy prediction.

KW - Early-warning

KW - Enterprise crisis

KW - Exponential smoothing method forecasting

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/57849144800

U2 - 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

DO - 10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.7

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:57849144800

SN - 9780769534022

T3 - Proceedings of International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management

SP - 576

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BT - Proceedings - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008

T2 - 2008 International Conference on Risk Management and Engineering Management, ICRMEM 2008

Y2 - 4 November 2008 through 6 November 2008

ER -

Business failure prediction using exponential smoothing forecasting and pattern recognition

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

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