Basic public service and residents' travel carbon time intensity: Impact and mechanism

Investigating demand-side emission reduction through individual behavior and public infrastructure remains a focal point, yet existing studies lack a temporal perspective on their relationship. This study introduces the concept of carbon time intensity (CTI), which refines carbon emission analysis from total quantity to temporal structure, aiming to deepen the understanding of demand-side mitigation through an integrated spatiotemporal framework. This study, drawing on data from the 2021 China Time Use Survey and Household Finance Survey, investigates the mechanisms by which urban basic public service (BPS) affect residents' travel carbon time intensity (TCTI). The analysis reveals that enhancing BPS quality significantly reduces TCTI, primarily through two pathways: altering residents' choices toward low-carbon travel and reinforcing green living concepts with marginal effects of 0.223 and 0.278 respectively. Moreover, the impact of BPS on TCTI exhibits clear heterogeneity across income levels, urban-rural divisions, and geographic regions, with high-income urban populations in developed areas demonstrating substantial yet untapped potential for carbon reduction. Additionally, the gradient boosting tree model identifies a notable plateau in BPS improvements' effect on TCTI, alongside persistent long-term mitigation effects, both following pronounced non-linear patterns. This study preliminarily explores the feasibility of demand-side emission reduction by examining the temporal structure of individual travel-related emissions and delineates key patterns in TCTI influenced by BPS. It provides a theoretical framework for advancing demand-side mitigation through a spatiotemporal approach, offering novel insights and methodologies for more personalized emission reduction strategies within this context.