Assessment of provincial PV recycling potential: Integrating product lifetime distribution and scrap capacity

With global solar photovoltaic deployment accelerating, effectively managing end-of-life modules is critical for resource sustainability. While many studies estimate regional PV waste, they often overlook the complex interplay of environmental factors and regional differences that determine the true recycling potential. To address this gap, this study introduces an integrated assessment framework—the WARN model, combining Weibull distribution, Market Supply A model, Regional clustering, and Neural network approaches. Applying this framework to China through 2050, our analysis reveals significant provincial disparities in module service lifetime. We project a major wave of decommissioning to peak around 2035, driven by early retirements in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang. By 2050, China's cumulative scrap capacity is forecast to reach 437.88 GW. This represents a substantial secondary resource stream, yielding an estimated 1.54 million tons of valuable materials, including silicon, silver, aluminum, and copper. These findings quantify the immense resource value locked in retired PV modules and offer crucial insights for designing effective recycling infrastructure and proactive clean energy policies.