Are electric vehicles cost competitive? A case study for China based on a lifecycle assessment

Promoting the development of electric vehicles (EVs) is regarded as an important measure to ensure energy security, mitigate climate change, and solve the transport sector’s air pollution problems. Nowadays, compared to gasoline vehicles, whether the EVs are more competitive in terms of cost is still a question. There is no consensus achieved since the total cost depends on the development stage of the automobile industry and power generation structure as well as the cost accounting boundary. Many of existing studies did not include the costs occurred in all the stages. In response to this concern, this study estimates the lifecycle cost covering the whole process of production, use, disposal, and infrastructure construction as well as externalities for passenger battery electric vehicle (BEV), fuel cell vehicle (FCV), and gasoline vehicle (GV) by applying the comprehensive lifecycle cost model to China. The results indicate that in 2018, BEV and FCV were more expensive than GV (1.2–5.3 times), but that BEV will become cheaper after 2025, and its cost advantage will be enlarged to $419 (5%) compared to GV by 2030. The lifecycle cost of FCV will be $527 (or 5%) lower than that of GV by 2030. These results clarify that the costs of vehicle production account for the largest proportion in the total lifecycle cost.