Abstract
According to the accident information of Shaoguan tunnels for Beijing-Zhuhai expressway in China, a neural network model was constructed for the purpose of predicting the severity of accidents. In this model, 9 input variables were selected from three aspects, which are the time of traffic accident, tunnel environment and traffic dynamic factors, and the output variable was the severity of accident. Then the sensitivity analysis method was selected to study the effects of input variables on output variable. Three conclusions can be obtained. Firstly, the most contribution to the severity of accidents are the ratio of daily traffic volume and the AADT, and the proportion of large vehicles. Secondly, four input variables, which are weather, alignment, grade and accident location, have equal contribution to the severity of accidents. Thirdly, it is negligible that the time of accidents happened contributes to the severity of accidents.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 52-55 |
| Number of pages | 4 |
| Journal | Beijing Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University |
| Volume | 33 |
| Issue number | 6 |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2009 |
| Externally published | Yes |
Keywords
- Expressway tunnel
- Neural network
- Sensitivity analysis
- Severity
- Traffic accident
