A simulation method for the dynamic evolution of domino accidents in chemical industrial parks

Based on the typical physical effects of different accidents and considering the interaction of time and space, a dynamic evolution model of the domino effect was proposed in this study. The Monte Carlo method was used to deal with the uncertainty of the evolution path and capture the characteristics of the time evolution. The model considered mixed accident types and the synergistic effect of accidents and extended the application of the probit model. Risk assessment parameters such as evolution path, evolution time, tank accident probability, and domino evolution probability were obtained to evaluate the vulnerability of storage tanks exposed to such hazards. The proposed model was verified through a comparative case analysis, and the results showed that the model can not only capture the space–time dimension but also overcome the limitations of conventional analysis of high-level domino propagation. Different accident types, synergistic effects, and burning capacity of storage tanks have a significant impact on the domino propagation process.