开启低碳健康新征程

The year 2023 marked a pivotal moment for climate change globally, across Asia, and within China. China experienced its highest recorded average annual temperature of 10.71°C (0.82°C above the 1981–2010 average), its second-lowest annual rainfall since 2012, and endured significant flood and drought events. The 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement is on the verge of being exceeded, posing severe threats to human health, underscoring the urgent need for immediate action. In 2024, the Lancet Countdown Asia Centre, leading a collaboration of 77 experts from 28 prominent research institutions, released the fifth China Report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change. This report tracks China’s progress in addressing health and climate change. The report is structured around five thematic domains encompassing 31 indicators: (1) climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; (2) adaptation, planning, and resilience for health; (3) mitigation actions and health co-benefits; (4) economics and finance; (5) public and political engagement. The report in this year adopted a forward-looking perspective, including predictive analyses of climate-related health risks and tracks trends in compound exposures (Pannel 2), emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive measures. Two new indicators are introduced this year: health-care sector emissions (Indicator 3.4) and stranded coal assets from the low-carbon transition (Indicator 4.2.5), both underscoring the necessity of mitigation efforts to safeguard public health. The findings reveal that health risks are already severe and are projected to worsen significantly. In 2023, the average number of heatwave exposure days per capita in China reached 16 days, over three times the historical average (1986–2005). Heatwave-related mortality surged by 1.9 times, while heat-related losses in labor productivity increased by approximately 24%, and safe outdoor activity hours dropped by 60%. Compound hot and dry days also rose sharply, with 2023 recording 30 times the average from 1986–2005. By 2060, compared to the baseline (1986–2005), annual average heatwave-related mortality is projected to increase by 183%–275%, and labor productivity losses by 28%–37%. By 2030, mortality attributable to wildfires are expected to rise by 28%–36% compared to the baseline. Moreover, compared to 2013–2019 levels, the annual excess risk of dengue fever incidence is anticipated to increase by 15.3%–15.5% by 2060, with provinces such as Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanxi facing a surge of 30%–60%. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are put forth to safeguard against the climate change-related health risks: Establish an effective inter-departmental coordination mechanism for responding to health risks from climate change. China should implement a ministerial coordination mechanism at the national level to coordinate resources, and explore best practices for establishing local coordination mechanisms. Accelerate the implementation of the control of overall carbon emissions at the regional level. With national policies now issued, regions need to quickly expand renewable energy, reduce the carbon intensity of energy, and enhance carbon emissions control to avoid future risks of stranded assets and health damages. Advance climate and health-friendly investment and financing. China will need to cut fossil fuel subsidies and increase financial support for essential mitigation and adaptation technologies. Develop a low-carbon health-care system. China should set China will need to cut fossil fuel subsidies and increase financial support for essential mitigation and adaptation technologies. Provide high-quality health meteorological services. Current tailored weather-related health services should be expanded to other parts in China. These services should offer personalised warnings that consider the specific geographical location, the prevalent diseases in the area, and individual susceptibilities.