多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估

In order to overcome the limitation of binary state in reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems，Multi-state Markov process models are constructed for the cross combination of solar photovoltaic power generation system，wind power generation system，and user power load based on the characteristics of dynamic changes in output power and user power load of the power generation system. Two important reliability indexes，availability and loss of load expectation，are derived by employing aggregated stochastic process theory. Finally，the correctness and applicability of the model are verified by numerical examples. The results show that the proposed model can provide a good theoretical basis for the reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems，and a more accurate reliability evaluation of power supply systems can be also achieved by using the proposed model and techniques.